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fusion analytics and michael farr, cnbc contributor from farr, miller and our own rick santelli. hey, guys, how you doing. michael fax let's kick this off to you. what do you attribute this very strong rally today. >> i don't think anything in terms of the earnings season, maria, has spooekd spooked the markets at all so we continue in this. perhaps goldilockgoldilocks, a t of lala land, recognized some of the issues, regulatory issues and housing was really good today. the economy is feeling better and investors aren't feeling bad. earnings numbers pretty solid so people are voting with their dollars right now. things are positive. >> for how much longer, mike? you have to admit, a pretty good run for a while now. are we due for a pullback of some kind? >> due for a rest or a pullback, would i say, but i don't think it's anything that looks like it has to be too dangerous. in addition to all the things michael is talking about, the market's refusal to go down when everybody else is saying it's overbought, probably contributed to the fact that we have this give up move higher. chatte
. >> rick santelli, how do you think this plays out? >> i think belt-tightening is good. we can't artificially try to get rid of all of the hiccups. the recessions and the turndowns. i think we need to let the capital get reallocated by the private sector, and i do think the tax increase -- you know, think back to candidate romney. he said if you let these taxes go up you'll lose hundreds of thousands of jobs. i think in hindsight he's proven to be somewhat correct. >> yeah. we'll keep watching in terms of what the job numbers say post these defense cuts. you think we're going to get a big cut in defense and that will mean layoffs? what about defense stocks? >> yeah. i think when you look at the complexion of the fiscal conservatives and how small of an appearance they have in the two houses and, of course, none in the white house, that the sequester represents the only spending cuts they are going to be able to tactically do, and i think it has to be perceived in that way. >> isn't it interesting, eric, that at this point we're really not talking about the dysfunction in washin
and also with me is ben pace, michael sansaterra and our own rick santelli. gentlemen, good to see you. thank you so much for joining us. ben pace, going to kick it off with you. handicap the numbers for us tomorrow. how important are the jobs numbers tomorrow, and do you want to get in front of those numbers? >> well, it's you a maizing that it's a number subject to such revision is looked at so closely but it is. we've got a little bit of a preview from adp, but the problem with adp is that it excited the estimate but then the previous month was revised so we might some of that, but if that number is strong, i think, you know, in this kind of momentum-driven market, it could drive -- drive equities up a little further. >> josh brown, the energy sector is one of only two overweights in the model portfolio that you run, that and health care. how come? >> well, i think it comes down to expectations, and -- and i think energy is the opposite of tech. with tech the expectations were very high, and there was some pretty big disappointments. with energy these stocks had a terrible year last
whether rick santelli is fine with what is going on in chicago there. hi, ricky. >> hi. the bond market is the only sane sector in my opinion as you look at an interday today, taking a round about lower rate process to get there and if you open the chart up, we are going long here and going for the fair way here, if you open it up to ten years, once again you can clearly see the trend is to lower rates. but all stimulus is fundable. look the a the japanese for the last ten years on their jgb. it certainly looks like a similar trend. trends are easy to pick out. look at ten-year of the dollar yen. now this trend is isn't changing and benefit of the dollar and it continues to be something you should watch. both the jgb rates and yen against currencies because that's the runner we have to watch in this race it lower your currency. back to you. >> thank you very much, rick santelli with the latest in the bond market. intel and ebay kick off terk earnings this week. we get strong indications of retailers and pc makers perform during the holiday season. john fortt, one of the hardest working
and the dollar, rick santelli, the cm help. group in chicago. go ahead, rick. >> good morning, jim. we are look ac the how the fixed income markets are moving, seems to be bigger, pervasive conventional wisdom rate goes up, worked certainly for the month of january. you look at a two-day chart, you can see yesterday we spent a little more time above 2%, not true today. but a year-to-date chart will reveal we were at 176 the end of last year, up at 198, 21 basis points. third year, two-day chart, yes down a bit, yes, 320 seems to be their big level, 295 where they closed last year, up about 22 ba basis points. a curve in january, a bear market, higher yields, between the 10s and 30s, affectionately called the knob spread down here. foreign exchange quickly. look at the euro/yen, continues to forge higher and higher, you see on this chart, we are just a couple months away from three-year highs. if you look at the dollar again, one of the bright spots on the green back, which by the way, made new lows on the year and continues to hover at those levels, we are at the best level against the yep in 2
you. endless search for yields. the partnership has been a great source. rick santelli is in chicago. hi, rick. >> thanks, jim. two-day chart of ten-year gives you the picture. yesterday was a pop in the equity markets. issues in europe. we touched at the top of the closing yield range around the 190s. here at 180, we're basically down several basis points on the day, but unchanged on the week. you see a boom very similar, pattern yesterday was a little bit different. it accelerated a bit to the downside and the yield in the mid-160s. this is a catch upprocess, so to speak. now, if we move to the foreign exchange side, bob was talking about what a great day japan had. and they did, unless you were long their currency. you can see, hey, we've breached 90. if you open the chart up, 30 months to the summer of 2010, it's been 30 months since we've had any closes with a 90 handle on that cross trade. does it end there? no, i could show you a variety of currencies against the yen. we'll pick the one we've been talking about for weeks and it's been a home run, the euro/yen. we're not at the
in the past 15 years into the mp-3 cloud app. >> thanks. let's get to the cme group. rick santelli is in chicago with the thursday edition of the santelli exchange. >> good morning, carl. we've all gone to shopping malls and there's always a directory about every hundred yards and i like those are directories. they have a red dot that says you are here. okay. so you can navigate. here's where you are. you figure out where you want to go. but rarely do i see a directory that says you were here yesterday. okay. because that would make no sense. if you want to know where you're going you really need to know where you are. why is this important? because we're back to this tax issue with regard to the debt ceiling potentially and revenues and we continually here about things in the past and i'll tell you this. talk to any family that's paying whatever rate they were paying in 2012 and that's the rate that makes their family work. whatever that tax rate works. it can cover their expense, buy books, scene their kids to school, put food on the table. it doesn't matter where the tax was a g
the bullard comment at the top of "power lunch." rick santelli at nyse. hi, rick. >> we were close to 197 1/2. we closed last week at 170. it's been 22 basis point week and for a while over a quarter point. that's pretty large. if you open the chart up, 194 is about the cusp. whether when we close today we are at highest yield since later may or late april. you can see that chart. now sometimes when the treasury market sells off aggressively, it even catches markets off guard. not only investors. think about high yield investment grade. if you look at the inest vmt grade index, you can see the knee jerk reaction is a narrowing of the spreads because corporates didn't sell off as aggressively or look at high yield, same dynamic. you have to monitor over the next day's weeks to see if catch up does incan occur. >> the fed president james bullard talking about when the feds will raise interest rates. here is what he said earlier to steve liesman on "power lunch." >> if you are close to 7%, then you are within a half point of your 6.5% on interest rate side. and i think clearly the intention is
versus the yen, coming back to july of 2010. melissa lee, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you. now, back to the december jobs report. nonfarm payrolls rising 155,000, slightly less than some had expected. here first on cnbc is labor secretary hilda solis. madam secretary, glad to have you back. >> thank you. happy new year. >> happy new year to you. as the administration enters its second term, are we making any progress? i ask that question, because in 2012 we added on average 153,000 jobs per month. that is exactly the same rate as we saw in 2011. are we making some progress on the jobs front? >> yes, we are. and i believe that we are still healing. we've seen an economy that's actually added in a 34-month period 5.8 million private sector jobs. and this job report actually shows that there's continued steady growth. we even saw a small change in manufacturing, which is a good sign. we also saw health care industry, some of the other sectors, leisure and hospitality actually picked up. i think the consumer confidence is slowly coming back. but we still need a lot more to do. obvi
for the first time in ages, they be that would be the catalyst. >> rick santelli, the time i was in the sick bed we had a wild ride for the treasuries. back to a midpoint range now. what are the markets telling you these days? >> i think i agree with jim bianco. if you look at a 20-year chart of dell, we haven't spent time over 20 since '08. we haven't spent time above $30 probably since '05. when i hear ralph talk about the second inning and maria talk about dysfunction in washington, here's what i hear. we have dysfunction in washington because we can't address our debt. when i look at ralph he's looking at trillions of dollars to fuel stocks. my question is why is it continuing to stay on the side lines? i think what dell is doing is hat in hand with what i'm seeing. we have easy money out there. turn you tillty into a company but you're not going to get $53 out of it like in 2000. >> jim, you have the most respected technical analyst with us telling us how wildly bullish he is. what does he have wrong right now? >> i don't know if it's wrong, i just don't share the enthusiasm for things he d
in today's "closing bell" exchange by hank smith and steve from comcast funds and our own rick santelli. >> hello. >> good to see you guys. >> thank you so much for joining us. >> hank smith, we haven't heard from you in a while. let me kick this off with you. how are you investing going into all of these earnings coming out from the banks this week as ahead of that debt ceiling debate? >> sure, maria. our equity portfolios are fully invested. we see no reason 2013 can't deliver very similar returns as 2012 did. the fact is we still have a good fundamental backdrop. the economy is expanding. it's not contracting or growing. value sheets are strong and valuations are very attractive so what is there not to like? >> you're our resident skeptic today, and i would point not to the normal averages that we quote every day, but look at the dow transportation average which could close at an all-time high today. the transportation companies, often a leading indicator for the economy. if they are doing well. chances are the economy is going to get better. wouldn't that make you want to buy stocks
, including our own rick santelli and steve liesman. it's all about the fiscal cliff in that report, isn't it? >> taken by itself not a bad report, moderate to modest growth, real estate not doing too badly. all the comments, i didn't finish counting them up, but the word fiscal and uncertainty both appear several times in the beige book, and the clear impression, bill, is that uncertainty over the fiscal situation is already hurting the economy, delaying hiring plans, capital investment plans and really everything from auto dealers in cleveland to farmers down in texas have cited the fiscal cliff as a major concern. that's something that's influencing their decision making right now. >> you would expect that given the fact that everybody is in lockdown mode as we wait to figure out what our tax rates are going to be, where the spending cuts are going to be, that it is going to impact the economy. my question is how much of an m impact going to see earnings? are they going to get hit? >> that's the key to the whole thing. as we said, the beige book numbers, when they came out there were cent
and our own rick santelli as well. anthony chan, you bothered to come here. we'll ask you first. what do you make of this first day rally? one-day wonder or the beginning of a new trend? >> i really don't think it's a one-day wonder. i think the economic trends are improving, the left tail risk is off the table, not that there's no more worries so whether it's the sequester or debt ceiling, these are problems that are going to be in front of us, but i think it's encouraging, and i'm pretty encouraged by what i saw. >> even with the strength of the buying figures here, that doesn't give you any reason to pause, to say we look at these levels and this is your classic point to sell? >> kelly, every time you see a jump of this magnitude, you're going to see some sort of a correction of some type, but the big question 2013 as a whole, are we going to make progress or have seth backs and my prediction is more progress than setbacks. >> michael pento you said were you buying into this real. how much higher do you think it will go? >> we have about 45 days before we hit the fiscal canyon. the wo
's it. a little bit more growth. >> let bring in the always calm, collected rick santelli. you can tell us why yields are going up as much as they are. i mean, this is very much a risk-on day today, but do you think yields go much higher? >> i personally don't 2013 is going to be the year for the big enchilada pushing rates dramatically higher. i do think they will have some elastici elasticity. up seven basis points since the last time we traded is still under where we closed 2011 and haven't seen 2% in a long time. believe me, gang, if we're looking for some kind of a solution to our problems on entitlements and overspending that isn't going to show us a contraction in gdp, then you really must believe in uniconscious. because all you have to do is look at the transfer payment effects on the gdp and understand those are where we need to make the cuts. i was watching one of those comedy shows, that kind of thinks they are a news show, talking about during the clinton years we had no debt. just the notion of a budget surplus versus a national debt gets lost on many. i don't know that we
's turn to you rick santelli. i want to get your reaction to what peter says. he says on the debt ceiling we've been here before. we know how this ultimately plays out. and in his words, i don't mean to overstate your case, peter. you did it brilliantly before. it's going to be a piece of cake. how do you see it and traders you're talking to see it? >> they think the rotation out of fixed income into equities is definitely going to continue. but it's going to be like turning a barge in a very small waterway and it's going to take a lot of time. now, just for the first week we see yields are up on the tens. stocks are up about 2%. but don't look for that pace obviously to continue. and in terms of the debt ceiling, i actually in part agree with your guess. i don't think that's going to be the definitive issue. i think the tester is going to be the sequester. in my opinion. because that's where the spending cuts are, and i agree with today's op-ed. that's the only spending cuts in sight. >> do you think today's decline, brian, is partly just sort of let's take a breather? one trader i was t
the street, joe greco on the floor here from meridian equity partners and our own rick santelli with us from chicago. >> ralph, last time you were with us you were wildly bullish. >> yes. >> the biggest one-day point gain to begin the new year. >> just the beginning. >> you think it's just a beginning? >> did you hear the hissing sound when the yield on the ten-year treasury went above 1.9? the hissing, the air is coming out of that balloon, bill. >> you're saying the treasury bubble is bursting. >> starting to burst. >> and the transportation index is this close today to making an all-time new high. how can i be bearish? >> for the novice viewer, when the transportation index is hitting new highs, it's got to be confirmed by the industrials. that's a really bullish sign. >> that's a dow fear, the oldest theory in technical analysis. >> rick santelli, we are approaching 2%, well, approaching. we're closer than we've been in the last few weeks here, but do you think we'll hit that? haven't been there in a while? >> i think it's possible. i find it fascinating that we seem to have 20 basis poi
and maria battel and eric from russell investments and our own rick santelli. guys, let's kick things off in a few minutes. will be getting facebook's earnings so i may have to interrupt once we get the numbers out. meantime, let's talk about the markets in terms of what you're seeing. ethan harris, your thoughts on the gdp report? does that reflect what's been going on in terms of money moving into stocks or not? >> i think the gdp report should be basically tossed in the wastebasket. i mean, this report had so many weird components to it. if you strip out all the flaky stuff there, we're still in a 2% economy. a lot of things to worry about out there, but fourth-quarter growth is fine. >> mark, you agree with that, dump the gdp report in the wastebasket? >> yes, i think it was expected. a lot of companies and people were paralyzed over the government discussions and i think we'll see acceleration move in the second half of the year now that we have clarity on taxes and so forth. >> let's say we ignore the gdp report and don't put much credence into it. do you want to be investing any di
to rick santelli. he had an auction that went off the board. how does it look, ricky. >> doesn't look bad. we'll give it a grade in a minute. one issue market at 1:00 eastern was 89 basis points bid offered at 88.5. this yield on the auction .889, on top of the side of the market. close to the 10 auction affair, 397 on the indirects. we had 16.8 on directs, which is a little better than 13% 10 auction average but nowhere near the 30 we had last look. remember, directs have been very powerful. all in all, this was another b auction just like yesterday's two-year note. tomorrow is the last of the 99 billion in the seven-year note. back to you. >> thank you very much, ricky. speaking of the bond market, you see obviously the fact we're now just 55 points away from the dow 14,000 mark. if this market does keep moving above that, we see bond money rotate into the stock market. lpl financial put out the statement as part of a note overall that he puts out. there is no evidence, he says, of a rotation from bonds into the u.s. stock market yet. the only rotation that appears to be taking place is
come out looking relatively good. guys, back to you. >> rick santelli, now that we've raised taxes, i guess it's time to raise taxes and not cut spending? >> i tell you what, i think we definitely need to be raising our awareness on exactly how much debt we are tagging future generations, hopefully discussion will turn that direction. one thing we know, there's been a slight direction turn in the treasury complex. two-day chart of tens will reveal we're hovering with close to 198, close to 2%. here we at 190. the 30-year is very little different. if you open the chart up on the ten-year to may 1st, you'll see we're comeping back to 10s and 30s to early may, at least on a closing basis. what's noteworthy is obviously the two-year note deal is just a couple of points higher. whether it's 30s to 10s, or 10s to 2s, 30s to 2s, all steepening. why does that matter? that helps banks continue to fund at very low rates on the shortest part of the curve, the federal reserve programs. if we look at the foreign exchange markets, we only need to look at two charts. the first chart is the euro/yen.
this thing and all going to sign it by the way, including rick santelli out in chicago. worth entering for. >> all right. retailers reporting a mixed bag of december sales figures today after a rough holiday season. costco standing out with numbers atop expectation, reporting a 9% increase in sales. gap and macy's topping estimates, target came in flat, we can debate that. limited brands well below expectation. you said target wasn't as bad as some people are saying it is this morning. >> yesterday i said the street was thinking target and ross stores would be bad. they turned out to be not as bad. they go higher. gap was actually very good. the dollar stores remain under pressure and there is, to me, margin pressure in that part of the industry. i wonder whether the payroll tax will not help them, the dollar stores, walmart very aggressive. the idea a lot of these companies should to stop reporting monthly numbers, it is a hedge fund ritual to trade them in and out. family dollar's earnings not that good. >> if you were the company, would not want to report the numbers. >> they should sto
lower. melissa lee, back to you. >> thank you, rick santelli. shares of dell moving lower as more details emerging about the buyout talks emerging about the computer maker. what's striking, david, is so many people on wall street have estimates at what 9 company can be done at. >> it is not going to be 15, at least based on conversations i've had. details hard to come by until late yesterday. my sources indicating between 13.50, let's call it, and 14. that could change. but i think 14 certainly seen as the ceiling amongst the people i've spoken to involved in various parts of a complex deal, one driven by both the private equity firm of silver lake and more importantly by the man himself, that is michael dell. who will not only roll his 15-plus stake into any leverage buyout, but i am told as well will access fresh cash that he has outside of dell. not clear how much. to also aid in the equity raise, if you will. that equity raise had been a key question that i certainly had raised the math that it appeared they would have at least $4 billion, to $5 billion. closer to $2 billion.
the nasdaq. >>> let's head to chicago. 12:35. rick santelli has more from the pits there. hi, rick. >> hi, simon. stocks are up. interest rates are up. it makes sense. they're marching together down main street. will it last forever? at some point higher rates are going to be something they don't like. we're up half a dozen bases points today and breaking through that pattern the next several days. another reason rates might be up, look overseas. they had auctions in europe and they didn't do badly so we're melting away that safety trait. they've broken out to the 160 yield being violated. if we move towards munis, this is making a comeback. read a story on munis. there's tax issues we might revis revisit. real quickly, the spreads are starting to widen. maybe that's why businesses really at that point in these markets while the tapping is good. >> thank you, rick. survey monkey. it's a web-based survey company has raised $800 million in debt. one of the largest and one of its newest investors happens to be google. kayla tausch has been following this. >> thank you, dave, for being here.
trading week. he'll bring you the "mad dash" next. rick santelli will talk with americans for tax reform. grover norquist, what is the father of the anti-tax increase saying about the debt ceiling standoff? one more look at futures as we kick off monday morning. don't go away. >>> about seven minutes before the bell. let's get jim's "mad dash" this morning. >> there's the investing carl icon. always a good investor. and then the put into play carl icon. i think transocean, this is more of a rock bottom valuation. it had been hurt very much about an investigation, obviously what was the role in the condo. that is now behind them. the stock spiked a little bit after that cloud was removed. i don't think anybody can buy them. there's no one big enough to buy them in the sector of the driller. they break the momentum because of international drilling. it's a deep water driller, chiefly. not domestic land drilling. >> big calls on hp and emc. >> look, this is the kind of thing we're seeing. what's cheap, okay? hewlett-packard, jpmorgan said they're cheap. it could divest some assets. sanford
favor, i point that out. let's head to rick santelli in chicago. >> thanks, jim. back in the old days, they used to call tuesdays countertrend tuesdays. today lives up to that moniker. if you look at the two-day chart of 10s, you can see rates are moving lower. we're down about four basis points. a couple of things should jump out at you, techies, first of all, looks like we've definitely turned. and second of all, if you're an elliott waiver, it looks like the recent activity on the right side of the chart is the fourth wave of a five-wave pattern. maybe we get resumption of selling pishing it back up again. if you look at overseas a minute, look at interday of the dax. german stock market down about 1% today. countertrend tuesday, today definitely seems to be more of a risk off. how does that treat the fixed income market sorktd wiassociat the german stock market? their rates were down about five basis points on the boom from 150, 155 to 150. foreign exchange with the trend activity going on. if you look at the dollar/yen, it's taking a bit of a breather. nothing happens in one stra
.7% of the auction. they have a pocket full of ten-years. sue, back to you. >> thank you very much, rick. rick santelli in chicago. a terrifying compute this morning for fairy riders working in lower manhattan. right near where i am here on wall street. two blocks from where we are. at least 50 people have been hurt when the c street wall street ferry had a hard docking, it had hard term stopping at the dock. the ferry was in route from new jersey. the ntsb is investigating and ty, there is a very personal situation because one of the gentlemen wlos been critically injured in that ferry accident is johnny. we know him here as johnny utah. he works for barclays here at the new york stock exchange. we understand he is in surgery and we wish him and his family all the very best. we will be thinking about him and praying for him. very somber mood down here. a number of people who work on this floor, ty, were hurt. >> i believe including one of the other freedom rider of that ferry is matt who joins us from time to time. >> yes. >> i don't know if matt is there today. but some 50 people injured. at
in the long-term. back to you. >> thanks, seema. >>> to the bond market. rick santelli is at the cme. not by much but up above the 2% mark. >> yes, 202 right now. settling at 2% yesterday. 24-hour chart sue is alluding to, you can clearly see we rallied in price and dropped on the 8:30. that doesn't last long. open the chart up, we are making fresh high yields going back toy yop. but they are trading an almost skpakt time programs. their september copy and also a copy just like our tenure, remember. down close to 2% for the month of january. this 7% is compelling. one of the reasons we are ignoring gdp. this number put the dollar in negative territory for the year based on the dollar index. tyler, back to you. >> richard madigan from j.p. morgan's private bank, richard, we left off with critical rowcations. let's start with the first one. that's from bonds. low risk assets into equities. how do i exercise that pirouette correctly? >> markets keep trying to make everything about all in and all out. so i will preach pragmatism and balance. you're not going it take the return out of bon
. let's see how yields are performing. rick santelli at the cme for us. hi, ricky. >> i guess all you need know is 1, 2 -- 2%. that's where we are camped out. if you look at at a chart going back it december 31st, it jumps out at you that here is where we paused. now up 23 basis on the points of the year which happens to be the month of january. if we look at the dollar index, one would think with rates moving up, maybe doing better but not the case. some of those rules don't work as well as they used to. if you look at year to date of the dollar index we are now down on the year. open it up to october. see where it blows dollar index prices, since october. maybe thank quantitative easing for that. what happen whes treasure agts start to move up? good credit, relatively speaking. riskier, and this has been bulletproof. pay attention. tyler, back to you. >> to the economy now. now unemployment claims coming off five-year lows. what can be expected on the heels of the data. yesterday's surprising gdp dip, our senior economic reporter, steve. jobs first. >> yeah. tyler, conflicting data
's that guy, where did he come from ♪ >> that's rick santelli. i never knew anyone could be so cool ♪ >> they don't get much cooler. and he'll be joining us after this break. ♪ . >>> welcome back to the second hour of "squawk on the street." it's time for the santelli list. there one hits close to home, right smack in the middle of home. we're going to be talking about chicago, illinois. ever heard of sb 3144? not many have. it's the precious metal purchasing act. granted it was passed in the illinois house in the spring of last year and it's been moth balled -- i'm sorry, in the senate. it's been moth balled in the house pending some amendments. but basically the long and short of it is is they want an audit trail to any precious metals, whether you're talking coins or bullion and they want the retailer to do the work. but the point of this is why would they need an audit trail? the easy question is revenues but there's all so much more. i would say 90% of my e-mails sometimes are from the gold bugs and god love them but there are a lot of conspiracy theories and you can unders
and our own rick santelli. rick, i'll start with you because of the market response to all of this. the dollar went higher and yields went higher, gold lower. all the things that you would imagine would be an unwinding if the fed were to begin, removing some of the liquidity, right? >> well, it's not even removing liquidity. what we're discussing isn't that they are going to sell their inventory. it's that they would stop or refrain from purchasing any more sooner than expected. >> right, and as much as i don't like these programs, and i would be very happy if they did, i still think that we are jumping to some very aggressive conclusions about some dissenters that probably have been around, and the minutes give them a better venue to air their dissension, but in the end, you know, we only see lack or truly dissent when it comes to these votes. i think it's something to reckon with and a lesson to be learned. we jumped to eight-month high yields, not because the fed is making an exit but because the market is nervous about what the fed is doing which makes my one final comment that
own rick santelli. rick, let's kick it off with you. what's been the reaction in the bond pits? >> well, first of all, people on this floor say be careful. a little dissension doesn't break the trio of power as bill gross pointed out, but the movement was fast and furious. we touched a 190 yield. at three and a half month high yields and immediately comped us back to early may we means we have an eight-month high should we close at 190. saw gold move down which makes sense because qe is a dollar buster but here traders don't like the program, don't think we need it, don't think it's doing a lot of good but they like making money longing s&ps, dow futures and their own personal opinion is be careful about drawing hard and fast conclusions on the minutes. >> if we didn't need this program though, wouldn't the market reaction be more positive? >> sure. what i think is the fed needs to get out of the way, the sooner the better. they are interfering with the price signal of markets. arguably in the backdrop of negative fundamentals, the fed is covering up a lot of bad news. the soon
. are investors moving away from plays? >> joining us john from cgfi group and rick santelli. rick, i'll go to you first. we're talk about moving treasuries. is 2% enough to push people in mass into equities? >> you know, i don't think so. i think the percentages are much higher, but it is a start. and keep in mind global inflows to equities global was about $55 billion. that was a record for january. if you look at global inflow of bond funds and bond etfs, it was a whisker under $30 billion. so there's still money going in, but not as much. and of course the anxiety of potentially healthy global economy is always going to give traders an excuse to try to sell what is close to some historically low levels of yield, high levels of price. >> yeah. and when you look at equities you see this huge move in the markets. are we taking a bit of a breather? jordan, how do you see it? >> i think it's been constrained. uncertain election and fiscal cliff. and all of a sudden people are starting to pay attention to the fact there are -- inflation's low. i think the market starts to run, forest run. >> not a l
't have the right skill-sets. is you study the gdp report, rick santelli is at in chicago. >> a lot of u-turns going on. obviously there's a bit of a disconnect between what's going on in the equity complex and what's going on with one measure of the economy at least in the form of gdp. it's showing up in the fixed-income markets and currency markets as well. we'll get an interday of 5s. negative gdp, fourth quarter, it moved down to 86 basis points. look at it now, it's at 90. look at a 10-year, around a 197. it's back up to 201. look at the 30-year, it moved down around 316. it's now at 319. the point of the story is, if there's a market momentum going on, mostly predicated on stocks, yesterday was a historic number of puts in the treasury complex. so this morning everybody's running around after the number going, wow, what a contrarian indicator it was. but don't look for the notion of selling treasuries or buying equities to go away just because of the gdp number. on currencies, it's even more convoluted. look at the interday of the dollar index. jim's pointed out, you think this is
analysis, unfortunately. because i like the company so much. rick santelli in chicago. go ahead, rick. >> thanks, jim. before we get to the charts, i didn't put a currency chart up, but obviously the dollar and many currencies are resuming, upward trajectory against the yen. keep a close eye on the 88 level of the dollar/yen. two-day chart of 10s clearly shows you we're losing altitude in terms of higher rates, lower prices. as a matter of fact, one of the reasons many are now putting forth that we had so much selling pressure early in the year and towards the end of last year was the huge corporate issuance calendar. about $15 billion yesterday. let's look at the markets from that perspective. if you look at the lqd etf and look back to november, you can clearly see that it is definitely not holding up towards the highs. but if you look at the high yield i yielding, different story. even though corporates are moving very well, in terms of issuance, there still seems to be the reach for yield propensity associated with the junk/high yield. if you look at it from a spread perspecti per
. >>> welcome back to "squawk on the street." rick santelli here with today's rendition of the exchange. you know, the fed's exit most likely is going to be very messy. we'll get to that in a minute. it's almost a rhetorical issue. the exit seems like a star wars notion. an exit far, far away. you know, there never seems to be an expiration date on fauly y ideas. let's look at some of the most recent. we reupped subsidies on wind energy. i have nothing against wind energy. as a matter of fact it is one of my favorite 7th century inventions because that's about the time the first wind mill was used to generate power. you know what? i don't know but i think it's been a long time. i don't know if that subsidy will ever end. i can't remember how many decades we subsidized wool after the civil war ended or the electric car. the first electric car was officially marketed in 1897. here we are looking at companies continuing on the dime of the government to say, yes, it's a plausible idea. in december, 2007, we officially, officially went into recession which means we are now in our sixth year, okay
. joining me right now is jeff sought from raymond james and jeff ickes and our own rick santelli. and another from the floor of the exchange coming up in a moment. gentlemen, nice to have you on the program. thanks so much for joining us. >> thank you. >> let's talk, jeff, about the earnings period so far. how would you character it? >> the earnings that were being revised down all through the fourth quarter, that reversed about three weeks ago, looking for fourth quarter earnings to be up about 3.2% by the time it's all said and done. >> do you think that's priced into the market? are you expecting any surprises for the fourth quarter? >> i think the earnings are going to come in stronger than most people think. i think the big unspoken event that's happened over the past two days is that the transportation average is broken out to new all-time forever highs, and i don't hear anybody talking about that and that's pretty burlish for the executive sensitive trannies. >> let me get your take of where we are in terms of the economy. a discussion about the fed earlier in terms of the
did it with rick santelli this morning. and cbo is going to revise these. but look, basically per month, we're looking at $250 billion worth of revenues per month. if you take out debt expense, medicaid, medicare, and social security, you have already absorbed, let's see, 65% of those revenues. and i haven't even put in, veterans benefits, smaller entitlements, and politically sensitive programs. >> right. >> to me, that's an unnecessary explosion and the numbers just don't work. >> well, but larry, again, you have to compare this to the alternative. the president's saying just give me an unlimited debt ceiling increase and we're not even going to have a conversation about spending. remember, this president hasn't been willing to address any kind of meaningful spending reforms except once in the context of the last time we addressed the debt ceiling. i just think it's so important we have to do this. i'm certainly hoping that it doesn't come to actually having some partial government shutdown and a scenario you described where some bills get paid and some don't. that's not optimal
and michael kajino of family funds and our very own rick santelli joining us right now. michael pento, i'm going to go to you first. you've been overly negative on the market, yet you still have the climb of the wall of worry, and now we find out that we had the second best weekly inflow into equity funds ever. what does that tell you about where investors think this market is going? >> i've been extremely negative on the economy, and i know i'm going to be right in the long run, but we went long, heavily long in early january because we realized woe live in a world dominated by kamikaze keynesian counterfeiters and they have mad to up the money supply in japan, europe, the united states. for instance, the u.s. money supply is measured by m 2 and it's growing at an 12% annualized rate. not going to bonds, not stocks. we're very long the stock market here. >> rocking the "miami vice" look today. like that. >> long the stock market, michael, but you think the economy is going to have trouble so basically you're looking that the market trading on free money. >> listen, look at japan. their
has gone from about 140 rick santelli told me this afternoon and it closed where, 190? >> 190, yeah. >> now, how high -- let's assume the economy grows. 2 1/2 to 3, all right? just assume. how high would those bond rates go? >> yeah, our forecast for the end of 2013 is 285. 2.85% on the ten year. but if you look at nominal gdp right now in the last quarter it grew over 5%. the last two years it's over 4% growth. ten-year treasuries should be somewhere around 4 to 5% right now. >> what do you think of that? what do you think of that? 4 or 5%? >> i think that could happen, but if we go to 4% or 5% fairly quickly that's going to mean that we have turned a corner on people trusting u.s. debt and they'll start to sell in a hurry. what i challenge brian on more than that, 3 1/2 years i have been the right amount of pessimist. it's a 63.6% participation rate, those are bad numbers. if we go on the current pace of adding jobs we'll be full employment in 2025. >> if the fed -- with the mediocre jobs numbers and 7.8% unemployment, the fed according to their rules, not mine, they'll keep pumpi
as the main player? >> steve liesman and rick santelli tell us what they think it all means. steve, you first. you recently did, as you know that great interview with tim geithner right here on the "closing bell." how well do you know lew? >> not as well. he was at omb for a brief time, a couple years in this administration, his second go-round there. look, we're learning more about him, and i don't think there's very much mystery here. he would be picked for the job because he's a budget expert, and that also he's a loyalist inside the obama administration and in a place that values loyalty like a lot of white houses, and the question becomes does he have other critical qualifications that say wall street or the international banking and financial system would require, with the big question being, you know, if we were at a place where there was another financial crisis, how well would jack lew, as did robert ruben, hank paulsen and tim geithner do to instill confidence? >> steve, you were right on the money with the jack lew prediction. you and i had this conversation, but i just wonder, you
" exchange. joining the conversation ed pbatowski, carol roth and our own rick santelli. you heard harry in terms of an expectation of a huge crash. ed, what do you say about that? >> well, i don't know. harry's philosophy and his thought process i agree with. it's just very difficult for the timing. i don't see a huge crash coming. i do saw that, you know, you asked what is the stimulus for markets going higher. you'll see what harry said, a stronger worldwide economy. the united states, you know, the best thing that will happen to the united states is we won't see terrible earnings right now. the thing to watch, maria, is the ten-year treasury. when the ten-year treasury starts to gain momentum in terms of rates rising, you'll actually see the stock market do well, but at some point after about another 150 to 200 basis points on the ten-year treasury rising. >> right. >> we'll start seeing valuations stretch, and that's going to happen towards the second half of the year. i agree, we'll have a rough market towards second half of the year based on what we know now, but do i agree with h
, in today's closing bell exchange steven wood and lee munson and our very own rick santelli and gordon charlesoff as well, a cnbc market analyst from rosenblatt securities will join us in just a minute. steven, what do you make -- we're sitting at five-year highs yet again? >> i think you've got a recovering economy in the united states. europe has pulled back from the headlines, at least for the last couple of months and china has really begun to show a soft landing so the global economy is doing much better than we would have thought six months ago, four years ago, and i think the markets are pricing that in so the fundamentals in the economy are improving gradually, but they are improving and corporate america looks in very healthy shape. >> i wonder if it's actually a reaction to fundamentals. lee, we know that there's a ton of money around on the sidelines from corporates as well as the federal reserve making this interest rate environment so attractive and really few alternatives. is it really a function of the global economy, or is it more a function of this money that needs to
congress asset asset management and our own rick santelli. thanks so much for seeing us. thanks for joining us. randy, how are you allocating capital in a market on the doorstep of all-time highs? >> we obviously still like the equity market. you know, there were so many uncertainties coming into this new year, and now a lot of those uncertainties have been wiped away with the budget ceiling and the tax situation that i think gives us a great deal of improvement, but as dandy don used to say when he hosted "monday night live," when it became obvious, he used to sing "turn out the lights, the party is over," and i think that's what's happening now. investors are realizing that the bond market party may be over, and it's time to shift to equities. >> let me ask you again. how are you allocating capital then in. >> we like a lot of sectors in the equity market. we like energy, materials and industrials, and some of the technology names are looking really pretty right now. >> rick, it's a perfect segue to you. he said the bond market party may be over. is it? >> well, no, i absolutely do not th
management, josh brown, cnbc contributor from fusion analytics, and our very own rick santelli. sandy, you first. are you a believer in the january effect, that being as goes january, so goes the rest of the year? >> well, you know, the term january effect was coined in the early 1980s. obviously, it's been supercharged and needs to be tested for doping this year with the numbers that we got, but it's an important thing. it's not just a u.s. number. japan was up 7%. you had china up 6%. you had europe up 3.5%, and when you look for causality as opposed to outcome, you can sort of see why. china's got better manufacturing, better exports and better gdp coming out of a recession in europe in the second half of this year. good autos and good retail stuff going on in the housing side and the u.s., and you've also go the retail investors putting 15 billion into equity mutual funds. we haven't seen that in 11 years, so, yeah, we think there's some pretty positive signs. >> in other words, do you believe in the january effect then? >> just trying to come back to the question. >> i don't think we
. rick santelli is tracking at the cme. we see the yield curve on the 30-year can be how are they doing today, ricky? >> this goes to the point. everyone is concerned if you are thinking rates aren't going up because they have. but they haven't really gotten traction at critical levels. so you look at one-week chart of everything. last week we closed at 109 and a 10 and yesterday closing at 190 and a 10. we back away when we get into the 90s. very similar for the 30-year bond. certainly, we spent a lot of time flirting with 310 to 312. here we are at 305. closing at 308 last week. we are down three bases points on the week. foreign exchange different story. trend is truly your friend when it comes to foreign exchange. you look at euro versus dollar. 9 1/2 month high. we continue to look at various things like how far we have shot now through 133 so a gig week for the euro and an especially big week, welcome a new handle dollar yen. looks like well close with a handle and closing in on 30-month highs versus the yen. we're not the only currency that's exploding against the yen. pretty muc
market now. let's see how rick santelli and the bonds are. >> happy new year, tyler. the bond market is the same as equity. it jumped up on yields. fell in price. look at the 24-hour chart. boom. we open up eight basis points after closing at 176 and we have been in basic lay one basis point range ever since. when you team it up with a one-day chart against the dow, you can see what's going on. the real question is, i understand bob is correct, we haven't really moved but we really haven't gained momentum in the equity trade so you want it watch this. the dollar index is up on the day. why? because the euro has fallen quite dramatically and the dollar add great day like every other currency. becky, back to you and happy new year. >> happy new year. >> if you are just coming out under your rock, a triple digit on the dow. yields on the ten-year also rising. still a lot of uncertainty ahead. how should you be positioning yourself or 2013? let's bring in our panel of expert traders. kenny is standing by at the nyse. richburg in chicago. and anthony at the nymes. kenny, why don't we star
in the bond markets, three-year notes up for auction. that means rick santelli is up for the action. >> thanks, tyler. first coupon sellers of the year, moved off the shelf a little while ago, yield 3.85, auction bid covered 3.57, this one excelled through that, 3.62. we see indirect 28.4, a little below the 10 auction average of 31. once again it seems to be direct bids really zooming. they have really had this issue the last several auctions in every maturity. 26.4. that usurps the last to 24.8. dealers took 45% of the option. i gave it a b. but it's going to be really interesting for tomorrow and thursday. the long end curves deepening to put really solid demand in 10s and 30s. sue, back to you. >> once again recapping a story we brought you at the top of the hour here on "power lunch." shares of boeing getting hit very hard today. that is because there's another problem with a 787 this time. it's at logan airport in boston. the stock is down better than 3%, although we should note that as off the lows of the trading session. there was a fuel leak. we don't know where it's coming from an en
to you. >> breaking news in the bond market. we have another bond auction up for grabs. and rick santelli is tracking action at cme. this is 30-year today, ricky, how did it go? >> first of all, i love 30 dpsh year options. furtherest down the curve. this is an a minus best of the bunch. best of breed this week for 66 billion. let's go through the metrics. ultimate yield is 3.07. wi mark set 309 bid offer at 308, split the difference, 3.08 and three quarters. 3.07 were priced lower yield. higher price sought after. if you look at the bid, we are above the average at 2.77. indirects above average app 37.8 and directs at 16.7 doesn't show the intensity of some of the direct bidding and all maturities over the last month but still beats 15%. ten auction average, solid auction, maybe a bit of the down tick pushing yields up. whatever it is, every auction should have demand as good as this one. back to you, sue or ty -- tyler, it is all yours. >> rick, thank you very much. herbalife stepping up. last month a few big funds jumped in on the other side of the trade since ackman's presentation. si
at longer end of the curve or not? rick santelli is tracking the action at the cme. ricky, i know they are watching the ten-year but they are also watching the 30-year yield. >> absolutely. we had two-year note today. 35 billion of them at auction. and the two-year didn't seem to make a difference one way or the other as we see on the chart as we crept up a bit. if you look at the ten just ref repsd referenced by sue. if you blinked, you missed it. if you open up the chart, she had her date spot on, april 25. we call it roughly nine-month high yield. and if we look at the frick and frack, we see the high yield is quite sought oafter. a lot of good buyers. mub is more muni oriented and still a raft of questions to be answered on the tax ability issues as we try it move forward and look at the loop holes in the tax code. sue, back to you. >> thanks, rick. >>> let's look a chart right now. year to date. dow and s&p up almost 6%. look at that. we are approaching all-time highs. we pose the question, is it time to get back in the game? mark is back with us. welcome back. >> sue, thank
to chicago and check in with rick santelli for the bond report. >> good to see you, simon. if we look at the day in treasuries, it is about lower prices and higher yields after yesterday's appearing to be driven by equities wp and europe, opening up to a week, down three basis points on the week. and considering we are at 184 bb there's only two closes on this move above 190. those are the 3rd and 4th of january. an lot of selling sustained pressure in the mark pept if we look at hygetf for high yield, 4.5 fresh yield highs today. even though on spraead basis, they have widened out a bit. along with the euro/yen, dollar/yen, big performer, fresh 30-month highs as we hover and debate whether we close above 90 and very aggressive pro dollar but anti-yen trade with regard to pressure due to inflation issues by the bank of japan. tyler, it's all yours. >> rick, let's go to phil lebeau now for breaking news. >> tyler, we had some of our crew in washington catch up with secretary of transportation ray lahood. he was addressing the u.s. conference of mayors. after he addressed mayors we had
. no wall of worry when it comes to the euro. holy cow. a year ago it was a different story. rick santelli is in chicago. >> jim, lots of extremes, once again, but not exclusively. look at the 24-hour chart at 30-year. you can see the yields are up. last week, where do we close the 30-year at 310. let's move to the ten-year. ten-year last week was at 190. one basis point higher. not interday, close. 191. we've giving that a run for the money. as you open up the chart, you can see, should that happen, it will be a fresh 7 1/2-month high yield for the 10. 30-year a little less developed on the comp. foreign exchange, look at the dollar/yen. wow, it is unreal. i get palpitations. this is a currency move like i haven't seen in a long time. another fresh 29 1/2-month high on the dollar/yen. it isn't just the dollar benefit side. it's really the yen side that's driving it. similar chart, except ashaved a year off. the comps are a little more aggressive on the dollar side. let's go back to the euro, this time let's do the euro versus the dollar. we can see 7 1/2-month high on that trade. it's goi
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